• 6 AUGUST - *1907 - Gen. Macario Sakay, one of the Filipino military leaders who had continued fighting the imperialist United States invaders eight years into the Ph...
    8 years ago


The Daily Tribune

(Without Fear or Favor)



World Wildlife Fund for Nature-Philippines

The Philippines Matrix Project

An Erap upset in the making DIE HARD III Herman Tiu Laurel 03/08/2010

Monday, March 8, 2010

An Erap upset in the making

Herman Tiu Laurel
While the well-publicized surveys supporting one or the other presidential bid proclaim this and that, such as Pulse Asia’s latest report showing the Yellow dummy supposedly “regaining” his lead, a quiet survey that I find more reliable has been making the rounds. This survey, conducted by management professionals associated with the Asian Institute of Management (AIM), is for the internal consumption of the group and is not to be publicized.

Done in February along the Lingayen-Laguna corridor and Metro Manila, it shows Estrada at 23 percent, Villar at 25 percent, and Aquino leading with 39 percent. But the pollsters themselves see Estrada neutralizing this Yellow candidate’s lead in Mindanao while Villar takes the Visayas. The Ilocos votes for Estrada and the Bicol votes for Aquino will then bring the two neck-and-neck as Villar falls off the top by election day.

In the above survey, Erap makes a 10-point advance in late February — the same dramatically positive trend that Pulse Asia shows with Estrada’s 6-percentage point improvement on top of Villarroyo’s 6-percent decline and the Yellow dummy’s 1-point fall.

Estrada has been the only major presidential candidate climbing unerringly and progressively, in sync with his desired schedule of “peaking.” Surely, this steady but dramatic rise coincides with the increasing frequency of Erap’s TV ads which present a clearly distinctive message to the jingoism and generalities of the other two.

Estrada’s message bears the strong timber of history and the loftiness of statesmanship, reminding one and all of better times under his governance and a return to those times of sound socio-economic programs for the nation.
Again, we are reminded by survey managers that the undecided segment is still a really huge 48 to 52 percent. Even those who have given their opinion in surveys are really just expressing tentative views, often as a quick answer to the interviewer. In fact, Mr. Lito Villanueva, a witness to a survey conducted in Mandaluyong where the interviewer actually pressed for his desired “correct” answer — obviously not Erap — attested to this during a meeting with other members of our Suló ng Pilipino group. What confounds more is that the D and E classes are especially susceptible to other variables, such as the attire, tone of voice, and subtle facial cues of the interviewer.
Still, as the campaign period deepens, despite new “withdrawal” and “disqualification” rumors spread by rivals, Estrada’s voters are beginning to come out of the woodwork.

The combined experience of President Estrada, campaign manager Ernesto Maceda, veteran media man Ferdie Ramos and the team of advertising professionals led by Jessie Ejercito have all served to time Erap’s campaign perfectly. They have conserved resources and energy thus far, and I expect this approach to continue until late March, leading up to the massive blitzkrieg after Holy Week.

The steady progress of Estrada’s survey ratings versus the declining fortunes of both Aquino and Villar also point to the wisdom of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino’s strategy of maintaining the momentum of provincial rallies and face-to-face meetings with the people versus the “air power” principle of the two. Maceda, for one, notes that Erap must have had photos taken with hundreds of thousands already across the country over the past six months.
In contrast, expectations created by the Yellow media and the elite-led “yellow ribbon” sticker campaign of an unstoppable Aquino candidacy is already being doused with cold water by the crash of his ratings. Similarly, Villar’s campaign is fast losing steam as the backlash to his overspending and the “Villarroyo” tag are taking their toll. An Erap upset on election day is in the offing.

Our only concern is the continuing vulnerability of the automated elections to fast-track mass cheating in the many far-flung areas in Mindanao, the Visayas, and in parts of Northern Luzon still controlled by warlords. The “dark days” of brownouts and blackouts are conditioning the public to expect election day power outages where massive cheating can occur. Of course, we have the report of the PPCRV of the padding of the voters’ list running to over four million that is causing much worry.

In the meantime, opportunists of all stripes are creating conditions for midnight deals, such as the massive rotating brownouts nationwide. Arroyo’s oligarch-cronies, for instance, were reported by The Tribune last Friday to bag up to P10-billion emergency power contracts again, reminiscent of the Cory years. But then, smaller players are at work, too, like this supplier of ID cards named “All Card.” Little is known about the supplier and its technology, and is thus arousing interest and concern.

But here’s the thing: A little over six months ago, the GSIS already introduced a new ID system for its members. This March, though, a new Unified Multipurpose ID (UMID) card will be rolled out through the GSIS, PhilHealth, and SSS, as well as, other state-run agencies including the PhilPost. What happens then to all the government money spent on the GSIS cards launched just months ago? Another midnight deal before the elections? You bet.
That’s why in all, a massive Erap win is needed to overcome all these.

(Tune in to 1098AM, Suló ng Pilipino, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, 6 p.m. to 7 p.m.; Global News Network, Destiny Cable Channel 21, Talk News TV, Tuesday, 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. on “Visionary Tsinoys: Candidate Vivienne Tan”; also visit http://hermantiulaurel.blogspot.com)

(Reprinted with permission from Mr. Herman Tiu Laurel)

SourceThe Daily Tribune

ALTERNATE URL: http://www.tribune.net.ph/commentary/20100308com5.html


Blog Archive