As 2010 Polls Draw Near, Unprecedented Fraud, Violence, ‘No-El’ Loom
Underneath the never-ending and intensifying political conflict is the permanent and worsening crisis of the economy. The raging economic crisis feeds the growing dispute among the various factions of the political elite contending for control of political power and monopoly of economic spoils – a conflict that has become more pronounced and increasingly vicious under the nine-year old Arroyo administration.
By ARNOLD PADILLA
Analysis
Bulatlat.com
(Originally published 11 Dec. 2009)
In the middle of all these is President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo who, despite being in the last remaining months of her troubled and despised presidency, will continue to be a key political player. Last week, she made two unprecedented moves – first declaring her candidacy for congresswoman in Pampanga and then imposing martial law in Maguindanao – that changed the complexion of the upcoming national polls.
Underneath the never-ending and intensifying political conflict is the permanent and worsening crisis of the economy. The raging economic crisis feeds the growing dispute among the various factions of the political elite contending for control of political power and monopoly of economic spoils – a conflict that has become more pronounced and increasingly vicious under the nine-year old Arroyo administration.
Economic Decay and Power Struggle
The upcoming elections will be held amid the worst crisis faced by the global capitalist system since the Great Depression of the 1930s. While the impact of this crisis on the Philippine economy has been many times downplayed by the Arroyo administration, the global crunch has without a doubt pushed the country into greater backwardness and unparalleled poverty and job scarcity.
Third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a dismal 0.8 percent which was much lower than what the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) hoped for. With factory production severely undermined by global recession, export-oriented manufacturing contracted for three consecutive quarters with the latest report showing a decline of 7.6 percent. Per capita GDP or the total value of domestic production as divided by the national population fell by 1.2 percent that indicates less available wealth for an increasing number of Filipinos. This year, the number of poor Filipinos is expected to grow to 32.3 million or almost 12 million higher than the estimated number of poor in 2000. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic impact of tropical storm Ondoy and typhoon Pepeng is expected to further reduce GDP growth in the fourth quarter by 0.6 percentage points.
Modest GDP growth prior to the global recession and major natural disasters did not translate to poverty reduction. On the contrary, growth in the Philippine context has meant greater poverty with every one percent of growth accompanied by about 0.3 percent increase in the number of poor Filipinos. This means that whatever economic growth achieved has been at the expense of decent wages, sufficient social services, and reliable social security for the poor and ordinary income earners.
With the accelerating economic decay that the country faces, brought about by the permanent crisis of the pre-industrial economy and made worse by the still raging global crunch, continued implementation of neoliberal globalization policies, and impact of the climate crisis, factional conflicts among the various blocs of the local political elite to control state power and protect their wealth and further enrich themselves could only but intensify.
And amid dwindling wealth available in the domestic economy as the global crisis worsens, the Arroyo clique and its cronies have expectedly become more aggressive in consolidating and expanding their control of whatever wealth is left in and produced by the domestic economy. An indispensable component of such control is prolonged and tighter control over government that they hope to accomplish at all costs. At the same time, continued control of political power assures Mrs. Arroyo and her allies of protection from prosecution for the many abuses committed by their regime against the people such as wholesale electoral fraud; human rights atrocities including extrajudicial killings; massive corruption and plunder; total sellout of the national patrimony and sovereignty, etc.
Raising the Stakes
By joining the 2010 elections as a congressional candidate in Pampanga, Mrs. Arroyo single-handedly raised the stakes in the upcoming polls. As a consequence, she further stoked fears that the elections will be fraudulent despite the automation and certainly would be violent and bloody. The Nov. 23 Ampatuan Massacre which was triggered by the local electoral conflict in Maguindanao is just the first in the many cases of expected election-related violence in the coming months.It remains to be seen if Mrs. Arroyo will face a serious challenge in her congressional bid. University of the Philippines (UP) Professor Randy David vowed to run against Mrs. Arroyo and provided a potential rallying point for all anti-Arroyo forces but backed out at the last minute while the Liberal Party (LP) scrambled to field a candidate. For all intents and purposes, the congressional battle in the second district of Pampanga was over the minute Mrs. Arroyo filed her certificate of candidacy (COC) before the Commission on Elections (Comelec) last Dec 1.
But for Mrs. Arroyo and her allies, the arena is much, much bigger than the second district of Pampanga. What is at stake is control of government itself and her filing of candidacy is just the first step in the ruling party Lakas-Kampi’s grand plan to preserve and consolidate its control of political power. The scheme, which Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita has already practically confirmed, is to change the form of government from presidential to parliamentary through Charter change (Cha-cha) with Mrs. Arroyo as Prime Minister.
Key to this sinister plot is clinching an overwhelming Lakas-Kampi victory in next year’s polls – from the president to the members of the House of Representatives and Senate, as well as officials of local government units (LGUs). With government resources at their disposal, Lakas-Kampi enjoys a huge election war chest, the patronage of local government officials including warlords, and a formidable fraud machinery. All these will certainly be utilized to the hilt by Mrs. Arroyo and her party in the 2010 elections.
At the minimum, Mrs. Arroyo’s congressional bid at least assures her of a government position that she can use as leverage against lawsuits as well as security for her family’s many economic interests, including their ill-gotten wealth. Even if an oppositionist takes the presidency, a House seat, and especially if her party can maintain a considerable number of representatives at the lower chamber, gives Mrs. Arroyo the influence to seek political concessions from the new administration.
Martial Law, Failure of (Automated) Elections
With such high-stake, extremely contentious national polls, the scenario of a failure of elections and transition government also remain a strong possibility in the Arroyo game plan to stay in power. It does not help that the Comelec has not made any significant effort in assuaging public apprehension about the reliability of its Automated Election System (AES) which many critics and experts fear is designed to fail. Fundamental issues raised by some of the country’s information technology (IT) experts, for instance, such as insider threats, software engineering limitations, and network vulnerabilities have to a large extent remained unaddressed.
Worse, with less than 160 days left before the first ever nationwide automated poll takes place, a huge 6 out of every 10 Filipinos still either do not know or know little about the AES, according to the latest Pulse Asia survey. Also, six out of every 10 Filipinos are either unsure or do not believe that automation can make elections in the country credible.
Finally, the most drastic option that the Arroyo administration is very much prepared to resort to in order to stay in power is martial law. Indeed, Proclamation 1959 which placed the province of Maguindanao under martial law and suspended the writ of habeas corpus is seen by many as a trial balloon to gauge public reaction and the political and legal implications of a martial law declaration. The regime is using the public outrage created by the gruesome killings of 57 people, including 30 journalists, to lay the ground for a possible declaration of military rule in other parts of the country using warlordism, terrorism, or even legitimate insurgency as an excuse and thus scuttle the holding of the scheduled elections next year.
Under Section 15 of the Omnibus Election Code, elections can be postponed if the holding of free, orderly, and honest elections becomes impossible due to “violence, terrorism, or other analogous causes”. The late strongman Ferdinand Marcos made a similar move in 1972, and was able to stay in power for 14 more years until he was ousted by People Power. Depending on how political developments will unfold in the coming days including how Congress and the Supreme Court will vote on Proclamation 1959, how it will sharpen the Arroyo clique’s conflict with other factions of the political elite, how strong public opposition is to martial law, and reaction or pressure from the international community, the Arroyo administration will continue to orchestrate and push to the limit its martial law and No-El ploy.
Thwarting the Gloria Forever Scheme
With Lakas-Kampi still holding a considerable clout in the House of Representatives despite recent defections to other parties of its members, and all Supreme Court justices except Chief Justice Reynato Puno being Arroyo appointees, prospects of these institutions upholding the constitutional safeguards against martial law are gloomy. Thus, the only guarantee that the people can rely on to thwart the ceaseless attempts of the Arroyo administration to perpetuate itself in power is to directly challenge these maneuverings by the regime through political actions including mounting public pressure and snowballing people’s protests.
The threat of “Gloria Forever” has never been as real as it is today. The political opposition and all anti-Arroyo forces must ensure that Proclamation 1959 will not last a minute longer and invigorate efforts to demand that Mrs. Arroyo step down now or push for her immediate ouster. The people could not allow Mrs. Arroyo and her clique to continue using state power and resources to hi-jack the 2010 elections and prevent a new and legitimate government from taking over.
To be sure, there is still a very long road ahead in the people’s struggle against the illegitimate, corrupt, fascist, and anti-people Arroyo regime. The 2010 elections – if the people are able to ensure that it pushes through as scheduled – will be a complex battle with Mrs. Arroyo herself playing a major role and using all the machinery and resources of government, including the Comelec itself. Then there is the Cha-cha agenda that Mrs. Arroyo and Lakas-Kampi will relentlessly push for in the next Congress. And lastly, the need to ensure that the new administration will take an active role in making Mrs. Arroyo and her allies account for their crimes and abuses, and that no political compromises will be made. The key is for the Filipino people to remain vigilant and actively and strongly challenge Mrs. Arroyo and her clique every step of the way.
(Reprinted with permission from Bulatlat.com)
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