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Timing is the key DIE HARD III Herman Tiu Laurel 11/20/2009

Friday, November 20, 2009

Timing is the key


Herman Tiu Laurel

The latest Pulse Asia survey is very instructive; we understand President Estrada when he says the results are okay as he wants to peak between January and February. In a previous column, I calculated the ratio of TV and radio ads among the pack of presidential contenders. Based on my observation, the ratio of Estrada’s ads, if any, relative to the ABS-CBN-Inquirer-Ayala candidate and Villar, is estimated at 1 to 200; that is, one Estrada ad for every 200 of the two. This is because the only time Estrada released TV and radio ads was on the day of his Oct. 21 Tondo rally, when he and Jojo Binay announced their candidacy. Escudero, too, started his daily ads right after his Oct. 28 bolting the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), and probably out advertises Erap 1 to10 by now.

I heard Pulse Asia’s Felipe Miranda over radio explaining that TV ads, even more than radio presence, make all the difference in survey results today. The Yellow dummy has been getting three-minute plugs for free, courtesy of his oligarchic family controllers, which, if paid for, would cost P240,000 for every 30 seconds or P1.44 million for each run. It’s unclear how many times it is aired a day; some say three and others say up to 10 times. This doesn’t yet factor in the “casual mentions” (the broadcast term for plugging and name-dropping) by the candidate’s sister and her co-host in all their shows. How much would all these cost? Well, they are certain to be charged after the elections — if and when this Yellow mascot is ensconced in power, as what had happened to Cory Aquino when she effected the transfer of government assets to these puppet masters.

Villar has been spending at least P7 million a day on ads for months now. We can no longer track when the Hindi conyo, galing sa Tondo ads or the Tulong sa OFW plugs first came out, as these have been playing far too long. Skeptics of Erap’s candidacy thus argue that Estrada may not have many paid ads but he continues to be very visible in media and that this should reflect on his standings. But what they fail to note is that news reports and coverage can never equal ads that assert a candidate’s message without equivocation. While Erap’s open declaration should have quelled any uncertainties, this has been obfuscated by constant rumor-mongering about his withdrawal in favor of this or that candidate, exploiting the potential disqualification issue that is really mere speculation.

Truth to tell, Erap has already a series of TV and radio ads with a clear and outstanding message to the people. It will have none of the gimmickry of torches and celebrities saying nothing, or of coños and other strangers, or of lame borrowed tunes. It will compress the historical facts of the past 10 years; the suffering and injustice wrought upon this nation; the tribulations and triumphs, as well as the dedication of the nation’s pre-eminent leader to a cause and its promise of deliverance. From what I’ve seen, these will make a major difference in the campaign, which up to now has only dwelled on the inane and opportunistic. There is nothing of value in the ongoing discourse except for news of political opportunists transferring from one corrupt party to another, ad nausea. Erap will provide the debate on issues.

Chiz Escudero has been banking on spurious speculation about Erap’s disqualification, telling people that he will replace Erap when that happens. There is an even more ridiculous claim that Erap will slide to become his VP. We don’t know who is now financing Chiz; some say it’s some big Tsinoy businessmen. But they all underestimate the gift of timing of the veteran dramatist and political leader, and underrate his political skill and charisma. Even the combined firepower of international and local media, the corrupt Supreme Court, “evil society,” and the corrupt conservative hierarchy of the Catholic Church could not crush Erap. They’ve been saying that Estrada is a “spent force” since 2001, yet, to their surprise, Erap still stands tall and gives all comers a run for their money. For sure, they’ll get another bone-jarring surprise in 2010.

Timing is the key. Babying one’s limited resources; playing one’s card; and releasing one’s main blows are all essential to a good game plan. This is not a slugfest like the Cotto-Pacquiao fight that ends in just a little over 30 minutes. There’s still six and a half months to go until election day. As everybody notes, even the hardiest fans of the Yellow dummy, will concede that in just a few weeks the perceived invulnerability of the three-headed hydra’s candidate has been deflated by almost 20 percent from the time of the inflated SWS survey. It’s going to deflate even faster as more and more of the Yellow myths are shattered by truth and reality — like the favoritism enjoyed by the Aquinos from the oligarchic conspirators of Edsa I and II while the country slid deeper and deeper into poverty because of their policies and joint opportunism.

(Tune in to 1098AM, Sulong Pilipinismo, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, 6 p.m. to 7 p.m.; Global News Network, Destiny Cable Channel 21, Talk News TV, Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. to 9 p.m. on “The Darker Side of Ninoy Aquino;” also visit http://hermantiulaurel.blogspot.com)

SourceThe Daily Tribune

ALTERNATE URL: http://www.classicposters.com/commentary/20091120com6.html

(Reprinted with permission from Mr. Herman Tiu-Laurel)


Anonymous said...

You are pathetic. Obviously, you are a propagandist of Erap. But believe me, lahat ng sinasabi mo eh kakainin mo. Noynoy will win by a landslide, bigger than the margin of your candidate in 98.

Jesusa Bernardo said...

@ Anonymous,

Actually, your comment seems more pathetic because it's uninformed and so dismissive. One can also claim that 'you're a propagandist of Noynoy and the murky yellows.'

Let us all be civil and open-minded.

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